![]() ![]() After a league-low 6.6-yard average depth of target the previous year, Carr ranked sixth last season at 8.9. He took 22 more deep shots last season than in 2019, with 12.2 percent of his attempts spanning at least 20 yards (9th). The king of dink-and-dunk in recent years, Carr actually dared to go downfield last season. Assuming McDaniels doesn’t throttle back the downfield passing game, Carr will be viable in one-QB leagues, though his lack of rushing probably prevents him from jumping into the top 10 of quarterbacks. Even if he loses some attempts (no certainty) under new head coach and play caller Josh McDaniels, the veteran QB should make up for it with additional TD passes. With Davante Adams now joining Waller and 1,000-yard slot receiver Hunter Renfrow, Carr has more fantasy upside than ever. And all of that came during a tumultuous season for the franchise (on multiple fronts) and with a thin receiving corps that saw TE Darren Waller limited to 11 games. His YPA was nearly the same as the year before (7th), and the aggressive approach combined with a 17-game schedule and a career-high 626 attempts resulted in 701 more passing yards than his career high from 2020. While his average target depth dropped slightly from 2020, he still ranked ninth at 8.1 yards. He went downfield on 12.9 percent of his passes, fifth most in the league (min. He attempted 81 passes of at least 20 yards last season, second only to Tom Brady and twice as many as he had just two years before. Unlike his dink-and-dunk Oakland years, Carr is now a downfield passer, using his strong arm to stretch the field. Read Past Outlooksįor the second year in a row, Carr thrived with the long ball. Carr should have value in two-QB leagues, but he's got a tough path to value in single-QB formats as a sub-elite passer who doesn't have dominant weapons and provides next to nothing on the ground (845 yards, six TDs in nine seasons). ![]() A healthy season out of Michael Thomas, who played 10 games the past three years, would go a long way, as the Saints otherwise will need sustained contributions from 2022 UDFA Rashid Shaheed (377 receiving yards in Weeks 13-18) or undersized tight end Juwan Johnson (seven TDs in a seven-game stretch). In March, he signed a four-year $150 million deal with New Orleans, where he'll have two reliable weapons in WR Chris Olave and RB Alvin Kamara. He was benched the final two games and then released shortly after the season. ![]() Carr looked deep plenty (71 targets beyond 20 yards, 5th), but he couldn’t connect on many of those throws, ranking 25th in completion percentage (32.4). Carr’s on-target percentage was 67.9 - only Baker Mayfield and Zach Wilson were lower among qualified QBs. And that’s saying something considering he had one of the league’s best wide receivers in Davante Adams. In one start last season, Howell played 63 snaps and ran five times for 35 yards and a touchdown.Pick a metric from last year and chances are it was Carr’s worst since his rookie season. Howell will be the starting QB going into the regular season for the Commanders. While you aren’t often going to get a guaranteed, high-volume rushing quarterback for virtually no investment, we might have a chance to do it with Sam Howell. I know I’m talking a lot about rushing volume, but the reason for it is that it matters for fantasy football. If you’re targeting a true pocket passer, you can also prioritize Jared Goff (QB17), but with a chance for better touchdown numbers, Carr should be a viable late-round option for those who missed out on higher-upside options. He’s now under center for the New Orleans Saints, which gives him a combination of indoor games, a good receiving group and a pretty easy schedule for 2023.īut in looking at expected touchdown numbers, Carr is due for some improvement.Ĭarr has totaled minus-17.7 touchdowns over expected since entering the league in 2014 based on my regression model, and that includes minus-21.4 TDs versus expectation over the past five seasons alone. ![]() That’s why almost everyone on this list has rushing potential.ĭerek Carr hasn’t had too much of that in recent seasons while with the Las Vegas Raiders. You generally want a semblance of upside from your fantasy quarterbacks even if you aren’t investing much fantasy draft capital into them. That made him one of eight quarterbacks to rush at least 4.0 times per game over eight or more games, and that would put him on a 17-game pace of 68.0 carries.Ĭhemistry with George Pickens as well as Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth gives Pickett enough paths to upside to consider him when missing out on the elite group of fantasy passers. ![]()
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